Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but very few government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
